GOT/ASOIAF: Ruler Beyond The Ice

Strictly speaking, this was yet another accident caused by a lack of foresight. I wanted to dismantle Littlefinger's scheme, and I succeeded. So far, Petyr himself had lost his influence in King's Landing, and the final piece he had placed in the Vale was now under siege. A generation's worth of conspiracies had been unearthed and exposed to the light by a single wave of a time traveler's hand.

But when I came up with this idea, I had only considered Petyr. I had forgotten about the woman caught in the affair…

And now, as a result, the interests of this supposedly "clever" time traveler were being threatened by a wildfire of rumors. Aegor let out a bitter smile. There was no such thing as a perfect solution. Taking down a major villain so easily was bound to have consequences. Now that things had come to this, there was no point in regret. What he needed to do was assess the trajectory of events and find a way to benefit from the situation or at the very least, minimize the damage.

Given that he was an outsider with limited knowledge of this world, Aegor knew his deductions about the situation were bound to have blind spots. Things would be much easier if he had someone well-versed in Westerosi politics to offer insights and join in the discussion.

So that night, Tyrion learned the news.

After some deliberation, the two arrived at a grim conclusion: war was inevitable.

…

From the perspective of a time traveler who knew the truth, the so-called "Alliance of Justice" had acted in a way that could, without exaggeration, be considered just. They had removed the young heir of House Arryn from his unstable and dangerous mother, a woman who had poisoned her own husband. They had placed him under the care of several major noble houses with no interest in rebellion, ensuring he would be raised and educated properly to grow into a capable and moral ruler, trained in both governance and warfare.

It was a noble ideal.

But the problem was that while Aegor had released the truth, it had spread in the form of rumors. And rumors, by their very nature, could not be used to justify the disruption of the established order.

As King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men—Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm—Robert Baratheon could never tolerate one of his major vassals being forcibly stripped of power by a group of lower-ranked lords. If such an act of defiance were allowed to stand, it would set a dangerous precedent. The authority of the crown would be trampled underfoot. A king who could not protect his bannermen was no king at all.

Even if the accusations against Lysa Arryn were proven true, it was the king's right alone to deal with her not some coalition of minor lords.

It was harsh, but that was the nature of feudal rule.

---

"The Iron Throne and this so-called 'Alliance of Justice' will likely enter a period of prolonged negotiations," Tyrion analyzed. "But it's unlikely to lead to any meaningful resolution.

"After securing the throne, Robert made several compromises to stabilize his reign. He chose not to punish House Martell and House Tyrell for their support of the Targaryens. He married my sister to secure an alliance with the Lannisters. He named Jon Arryn as Hand of the King to placate the Starks, Tullys, and Arryns, houses that had fought for him but had not been properly rewarded.

"All of these were deals struck with great houses. Swallowing his pride to work with them was humiliating, but not disgraceful. But who are the Royces and Waynwoods in comparison?"

Tyrion took a sip of wine and frowned. "Besides, our dear king has been restless for years. Tournaments are no longer enough to satisfy him. Even if it's just to relive the thrill of leading an army, Robert will refuse to back down. And that alliance having taken their first step will never simply bow their heads and go home to await punishment."

Aegor understood Robert well enough not to dismiss him outright. The man was no statesman, but he had been an exceptional battlefield commander. Fighting him head-on was one of the worst mistakes anyone could make in Westeros.

The fate of Balon Greyjoy's rebellion was proof enough of that.

"So where does their confidence come from?" Aegor asked. "How do a few noble houses in the Vale expect to stand against Robert?"

"Their confidence comes from the Bloody Gate and the kingdom's financial troubles." Tyrion leaned back in his chair. "To put it simply: an impregnable mountain pass, and an empty royal treasury.

"For thousands of years, the Bloody Gate has never been taken by force. The Alliance of Justice captured it through treachery, and they'll never give Robert the chance to do the same. And as for the treasury… anyone with half a brain in King's Landing knows it's a mess.

"If Robert marches on the Vale and gets bogged down at the Bloody Gate for a month or two, he'll have no choice but to negotiate."

Aegor felt a chill run down his spine. "If the treasury is empty, Robert will turn to his vassals for loans." His voice grew heavier. "That means our creditors might cash in their bonds and the investments we just secured could collapse before they even begin!"

"Exactly. This is a serious problem for us…" Tyrion exhaled slowly. "If Robert goes to war, my father will send troops to support him. And while the Lannisters have deep pockets, we don't just throw gold away. Right now, even I wouldn't be able to borrow money from my own family."

Aegor let out a deep breath. "We need to do the math. How much strain can our finances handle?"

…

After running the numbers, they reached a sobering conclusion.

To maintain their financial stability, they would have to immediately dismiss all employees, halt factory construction, withhold wages, delay payments on ongoing projects, and consolidate every last coin at their disposal. This included personal assets and even the "funding" the Iron Throne had allocated for the Night's Watch.

Even under these drastic measures, their capital reserves could only cover about 70% of the potential bond redemptions.

A decent margin, but only just. And this was only the beginning. The game had barely started. They hadn't even begun to truly spend.

If the redemption volume stayed below half, their business could continue at a reduced scale but the capital chain would remain precarious, always on the verge of breaking. If it exceeded half but stayed under 70%, their only option was to hold on and pray that Robert won quickly and returned to King's Landing. But if it surpassed 70%... then Aegor might as well pack his bags and head east to join the Dragon Queen, while Tyrion would have to start considering how to beg his father, Tywin, to clean up the mess.

After all, Tyrion was still Tywin's son. Even if he was an outcast, he wouldn't suffer too much. But Aegor? He was a deserter from the Night's Watch, a failed schemer in King's Landing who had run when things went south. Why would Daenerys Targaryen ever take him in?

…

"Unacceptable…" Aegor's face twisted in frustration. Losing financial backing was bad enough, but the worst part was that the force cutting him off wasn't even a person, it was an uncontrollable situation, leaving him nowhere to direct his anger.

"Calm down. The more flustered you are, the harder it'll be to think of a solution," Tyrion said smoothly. "We were the first to learn of this. That gives us an advantage. Can you think of anything we can do with this head start?"

The phrase "head start" sparked something in Aegor's mind, and an idea struck him like lightning.

What would he have done if he had come across this kind of insider information before he had ended up in this world?

Dump any stocks that might crash because of the bad news and shift investments toward military industries.

Even if war broke out, it would be a localized conflict. Even if Robert suffered a setback at the Bloody Gate, the Vale's lords didn't have the guts or the strength to march on King's Landing in retaliation. On the contrary, once they had burned off some energy in this skirmish, internal tensions in Westeros might ease for a time meaning the overall situation would stabilize.

If that happened, his financial position wouldn't completely collapse. He just had to hold on.

"We need to immediately stockpile food and military supplies," Aegor said decisively. "Once word gets out, prices for both will skyrocket. We can profit from the price difference and keep our capital chain intact."

"What?" Tyrion looked at him in shock. "Who suddenly buys up that much food and arms out of nowhere? You'd be announcing to the world that you have insider knowledge and are trying to profit from the war. Do you take the people in power for fools?"

"I'm not just anyone, you keep forgetting that." Aegor narrowed his eyes, his confidence growing. The more he thought about it, the more feasible the plan seemed. "I'm the chief logistics officer of the Night's Watch. A hundred thousand wildlings are pressing up against the Wall. As part of our war preparations, I buy a massive amount of food and weapons and send them to the Watch. Who could say anything about it?

"At worst, Eddard Stark will pressure me to keep prices fair, but he's not going to have me executed over it. As long as I make the purchases look legitimate and play my role convincingly, this could work."

Tyrion stared at Aegor in silence, processing the plan. He was, after all, technically the Night's Watch's logistics officer.

But war profiteering was a dangerous game, and trying to snatch food from the lion's jaws was an even greater risk.

Was it worth the gamble?

Then, suddenly, Tyrion's sharp mind clicked into place.

A slow grin spread across his face.

"You know… you're not wrong," the dwarf admitted. "Stockpiling supplies as the Night's Watch quartermaster is a reasonable cover. But the way you're planning to do it is still too risky.

"I have a better idea: make it look like you're giving up most of the profit. Bring others in, let everyone make some gold together. That way, we guarantee our safety."

***

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