A Dark Fantasy Spy

---

Information analysis is a complex and difficult field.

It’s not just about processing gathered data or intelligence to create information; it requires describing, explaining, and evaluating the information in a way that the person needing it can interpret, ultimately leading to conclusions.

Moreover, since the topics change every time, predictions become uncertain, and one must consider the types of national interests and how national security and policy relate to the information. You also have to think about how the consumer of the reports will receive the information.

Thus, information agencies categorize information analysis into six steps.

Step one: Setting the topic.

Step two: Formulating hypotheses.

Step three: Collecting intelligence to validate the hypotheses.

Step four: Evaluating the hypotheses.

Step five: Selecting the hypotheses.

Lastly, step six: Verification and monitoring.

By going through these steps and utilizing both quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques, only then does “information” emerge. And there are roughly dozens of analytical methods.

So when it comes to information analysis,

Put simply,

It’s a lot of hard work.

—

Episode 10 – Turn Northwest

—

Preparing a late dinner, I sat on the living room sofa, carefully reading the plan drafted by Camila.

Tonight’s dinner was dumpling soup. Not in a Korean style, but made Azerbaijani style.

The main ingredient was lamb. A small dumpling soup filled with juicy and delicious lamb. I couldn’t remember the name. It was too long ago.

Slurp. The warm broth entered my stomach, enveloping me in a cozy heat. I cautiously dipped the bread into the soup, trying my best to not let the paper get wet.

“…Hmm.”

To summarize the verbose report in a single line:

They wanted to analyze the situation of the Kien Empire-Magic Territory conflict.

They aimed to grasp the situation of civilians, officials, and military in the northern areas where battles occur, delineate safe and dangerous zones, and ultimately create reference material for future operations by identifying threats in the north. That was the topic Camila hoped to explore.

I turned my head to glance at her seated at the kitchen table.

“Camila, how do you intend to collect the data?”

“OSINT.”

As she was about to serve dinner, Camila began explaining.

“I checked at the hotel, and their broadcasts from the Empire were coming through. There were quite a few articles regarding the conflict in the international section of Abas’s news outlets and especially from the Magic Tower.”

“……”

“And, coincidentally, when I looked at the Foreign Ministry’s materials, there were announcements for travelers regarding their safety when heading to the Empire and reports from international humanitarian organizations. So, I plan to start gathering those kinds of things.”

OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) allows for legal information collection, ensuring safe data gathering, and it’s very cost-effective and easily accessible, making it a feasible choice for Camila.

However,

“If you took the National Intelligence class, you would be aware of OSINT’s downsides too, right?”

Camila popped a salt-dipped potato into her mouth.

“OSINT has an easy access point, so there’s a significant chance of collecting excessive materials beyond what’s necessary, and the quality of intelligence is lower than that obtained through other means. Therefore, its reliability is quite low, right?”

“Yes.”

That was true.

OSINT is accessible even to civilians like Camila, but that’s exactly the problem; it’s too easy.

You might immediately spot someone on Twitter or Facebook posting pictures of battles from a few years ago between rebels and the government forces in Africa, labeling them as images from the India-China border conflict, or some attention-seeking fool tweeting, “I just heard this from a friend~” without even a photo or video.

Though materials from reputable media organizations or civilian groups are generally acceptable, they also make occasional mistakes, which is why OSINT hasn’t proven reliable.

Intelligence agencies are aware of these issues.

That’s why they have dedicated departments specializing in OSINT, reference materials assessing the reliability of information sources, and they even cross-verify data obtained through similar means, such as HUMINT (spying) or TECHINT (phone tapping, satellite surveillance, etc.).

But that’s a matter for intelligence agencies.

When it comes to civilians like Camila, I could only tilt my head in confusion.

Tsk, I clicked my tongue while wiping my mouth with a tissue.

“Anyway, it’s fine. Think of it as experience; it wouldn’t be too bad. I’ll help out from the side, so let’s carry on as planned.”

Camila, who was applying ketchup to her potatoes, responded.

“By the way, why is my dinner just potatoes?”

“Weight control.”

“…….”

—

Thus, the serious training and preparatory work began.

We made efforts to use our 24 hours efficiently, breaking tasks down into manageable chunks.

In the early morning, we would rush to the TV first to watch the news. We turned on the broadcasts from major media outlets of the Empire.

“There are 12 major newspapers and 8 broadcasting stations in Kien’s media landscape. This excludes radio stations and local papers with specific regional ties.”

“What’s the media’s tendency?”

“Most media outlets are center-right, hard-right, or centrist in nature. They’re mostly loyal to the royal family. There’s about 2 moderately to radically reformist broadcasters, but the executives and journalists there often face white terror and are quite subdued. Of course, there’s only one state-run broadcaster operated officially by the government.”

Camila listened to the news broadcast from the centrist imperial broadcasting station.

After reviewing news all morning automatically recorded overnight from other outlets, she had her breakfast.

I handed Camila the articles from the Empire’s newspapers and pieces written by correspondents from various media.

“There are a ton of articles. But why isn’t this one showing up?”

“It’s due to the high resolution. These articles are materials sent from the diplomatic mission in the Mauritania Continent, but many countries there lack properly established communication networks, hence this sometimes happens.”

Camila stared intently at the screen while brushing her teeth. It took a bit of patience—about 2 minutes to see a line appear, and if you waited a bit longer, the next line would come.

The articles were originally in their native language, so since neither of us needed translation, we could read them comfortably.

“I can’t take it anymore. Since downloading the materials will take time, let’s start with the training.”

After breakfast and reviewing the news and articles, we began shooting training.

Camila practiced mobile shooting with both a rifle and a pistol, alternating between the two. When I pushed the car from behind and blew the whistle, she quickly dashed to cover and began firing at the target.

While hundreds of rounds were fired by her, I took the device outside to organize the materials.

Even amidst the frosty air, I continued typing away, warming my frozen hands.

Seeing that, Camila, who was taking a break, said this.

“Don’t you have gloves? It’s freezing out here…. If you need, I can take this off and lend it to you.”

“No, don’t take off the gloves; just keep wearing them. I can’t type with gloves on. This isn’t the kind of notebook that’s easy to work with.”

“Oh, if only there was something like a rugged laptop… It’s too bad. My senior who quit working for the UN always carried a DELL laptop around.”

“A DELL rugged laptop is great. I used to carry that during my time in intelligence.”

After the shooting training, we had an early lunch.

As I typed away, the cold and snow enveloping me, Camila, who had been running diligently, stripped off her bulletproof vest due to the heat.

She placed her damp bulletproof vest in front of the fireplace, but since it was winter, we couldn’t ventilate the house, and a musty smell filled the room.

I wanted to tell her to go wash up, but there wasn’t time. While Camila sat at the table reading the materials she’d downloaded, I held my nose and heated up some retort food in the microwave.

“Let’s have a quick and simple lunch.”

“Sure.”

Camila rolled up the spread spaghetti and stuffed it into her mouth while scrolling down the screen.

A glimpse showed it was an article written by war correspondents from countries favoring the Empire. These journalists were among the few who could freely move between the tightly controlled north.

Camila chewed the spaghetti for some time while reading the article. She was diligently looking for reports on incidents and touching stories occurring in the northern Empire, announcements from the spokesperson of the Military Government Headquarters, army training, redeployments, and citizen interviews.

She was so focused that she didn’t even bother to go to the restroom. It seemed she didn’t even realize her briefly set-aside spaghetti had turned mushy.

“……”

After finishing my portion of pasta, I reviewed the materials circulated by relevant agencies.

The Foreign Ministry prepared a report on the state of the Kien Empire’s political/economic developments and threat assessments.

The Royal Intelligence Department produced weekly warning forecasts and daily reports.

Military Intelligence Agency sent defense evaluation reports and intelligence memos, among others.

The materials were quite diversified.

There were even documents made in Parliament based on what a member of the House of Abas heard during a visit to the Empire, alongside materials produced by domestic intelligence agencies like the Cabinet Security Office and Special Investigation Bureau, and newsletters from international relief organizations. There were also contents on international calls made by Abas citizens to relatives residing in the Empire, intercepted without clarity on whether it was illegal or legal. I could tell that if this became public, someone would be in big trouble.

While I was watching the screen closely,

-♪

“What sound is that?”

“Oh, that’s my phone.”

“You have a phone?”

“I got it activated a few days ago.”

I received a call.

It was from family.

—

In the cold winter sky, clouds were heavy. The already gloomy weather was darkened by menacing clouds, making me feel a bit down.

I rubbed my fingers against the frozen window while answering the call.

“Yeah, Older Brother Jerry.”

-“Oh, were you awake?”

A tired voice came from the other end.

It was a call from Older Brother Jerry, who worked at the Ministry of Finance.

-“Where are you, at the townhouse?”

“No, I stepped out for a bit. It’s my vacation, so I didn’t want to just stay at home.”

-“Who are you with?”

“Just a friend.”

Jerry muttered in surprise over the phone.

-“…You have friends?”

“Come on, why are you rambling all of a sudden?”

-“You’re a bit touchy today.”

The number displayed on the screen was from the capital of Abas. In other words, Jerry wasn’t using his personal cell phone but a desk phone.

And Jerry used the phone only when he was working at the Ministry of Finance office.

“I guess you are living comfortably nowadays? Calling in the midst of work.”

-“What’s wrong with a quick call during work?”

“What’s the matter?”

On the other end, I heard the sound of lips smacking.

-“Yesterday, you went out for a bit and didn’t come back until dawn, so Adela was worried and reached out to me. That’s why I’m contacting you.”

“Oh.”

So that was the reason. It suddenly dawned on me that I hadn’t informed Older Sister Adela about staying out. I also hadn’t told Lucia in advance that I would be absent.

“……”

Well, Lucia would probably understand.

I held the phone the other way around and shoved my hands into my pockets.

-“What are you doing wandering around, anyway?”

“I’m on vacation and staying out; I don’t have to get permission. I’m not a teenage kid or anything.”

-“That’s true. But since Adela is worried, I wish you would have at least told her beforehand.”

“Sure, I’ll think about it.”

I glanced towards the kitchen. Camila was reviewing the Foreign Ministry documents meticulously, draped in a blanket.

“Is that all you wanted to talk about?”

-“Well, that’s not all. I called to let you know the family gathering next week has been postponed.”

“What?”

-“Father and Mother’s vacations have conflicting schedules. Mom got released easily from the palace, but Dad’s schedule has been slightly delayed. The Ministry of Finance is so busy right now due to the redevelopment project of the Magic Tower and investment issues in the Mauritania Continent…. And there’s the Eastern market expansion too.”

The economy of Abas is solely managed by the Ministry of Finance. It’s effectively a merger of the Ministry of Planning and the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

So, it’s natural that they have a heavy workload. Public servants in the Ministry of Finance often work late and find it hard to take vacations.

“How much has it been postponed?”

-“Hmm, about two days?”

Older Brother Jerry continued to explain.

-“They are only processing urgent issues, so two days should be sufficient. Mom will probably head down to the family home to prepare first, and Dad will arrive soon. By the way, Adela and I will go down ahead of Dad. How about you?”

“I’ll figure it out. I have some things to do.”

-“Then don’t be late. Don’t keep everyone waiting.”

“Sure.”

-“See you later.”

Jerry yawned heavily and was about to hang up the phone.

“Oh, wait.”

I intervened urgently from the other end.

“What about that kid?”

-“You mean your younger sister? Why call her that….”

“Oh, so when is she coming?”

-“I don’t know. But they say she’ll come out before Dad’s vacation starts.”

“…Really?”

That’s how it is, huh.

I grinned as I hung up the call. For a moment, I felt I could hear Older Brother Jerry telling me not to fight when meeting family members after three years, but it didn’t matter.

Turning off the call, I returned to the kitchen beaming.

“Why are you smiling? Did something good happen?”

“Yes.”

Camila tilted her head in confusion as she looked at me, but she soon muttered a relieved, “Thank goodness,” while fixating her attention back on the screen.

—

After the afternoon, the weather rapidly deteriorated. A snowstorm was raging fiercely.

The targets we had set for shooting training were buried in the snow, and the roads we had managed intermittently, anticipating a need to drive out, were also covered in snow.

“It’s snowing heavily. The weather forecast didn’t predict that it would snow this much.”

Camila, wrapped in a blanket, gazed out the window.

The blanket that had remained in the closet had signs of being eaten by rats, so she had no choice but to take out the one in better condition and wear it.

“Perhaps it’s unpredictable due to the unusual cold snap?”

“Maybe the weather forecast was wrong. They could have mispredicted it.”

I nodded along, shoving firewood into the hearth. Her claim certainly held water.

Thanks to the unannounced heavy snowfall, the shooting training scheduled for the afternoon was canceled.

Had we been in an indoor shooting range, we would have carried on with training regardless of rain or snow, but unfortunately, the safety house’s training facility was outdoors.

We were trapped inside the house, wrapped in blankets and drinking tea. Just a little while ago, while staring at the window trembling in snow, Camila was merely making light-hearted remarks that it felt like a scene from a movie about being stranded in a mountain cabin.

As the teapot on the stove began to boil,

Camila gently inquired while sipping her cocoa.

“What do you think?”

“What do you mean?”

“Do you think the analysis is going well?”

I nodded at the draft Camila created.

Analyzing the situation of the Kien Empire-Magic Territory conflict.

Grasp the situations of civilians, officials, and the military. Classify safe and dangerous areas. Create reference materials by detecting threats.

This was her goal and the theme of the information analysis, and it was quite broad.

Thus, concern lurked in my mind.

Initially, I wondered if we could adequately manage such an extensive theme and whether we could handle OSINT effectively, but looking at the documents Camila prepared, those worries began to dissipate.

I calmly evaluated her analysis.

“To be honest, I was worried at first. It was quite a broad topic. I wondered how we would create detailed objectives and hypotheses or how to obtain reliable intelligence from government-controlled media.”

But still,

“You did better than I expected.”

“Hehe.”

The report wasn’t complete yet; it was just a draft, so I couldn’t make sweeping conclusions, but Camila managed OSINT brilliantly beyond my imagination and demonstrated exceptional analytical talent.

I guess that’s why companies prefer educated people.

“Clearly, you’re smart. Most of my British friends I knew were from Oxford, Cambridge, and the London School of Economics. They were incredibly sharp. Their creativity was also on point—they often came up with unexpected ideas.”

“SIS? Or SS?”

“Both SIS and DI, and I had a friend from GCHQ as well.”

Since Camila was still an undergraduate, she might lag behind them, but once she graduated and received practical training, she would likely become a good intelligence officer.

I sipped my tea and told Camila.

“If you have any questions about this information analysis, feel free to ask now. We need to analyze all afternoon, so ask while you have the time.”

“Ah, then….”

Camila, placing a document on the device, sat down next to me.

I couldn’t smell any pleasant fragrance… Just the foul odor resulting from the sweat we had both spilled over the day.

Of course, I was in the same boat, so when our eyes met, we could only awkwardly smile. Had I known, I should have washed up beforehand.

To break the awkward atmosphere, Camila turned on the screen with the document. As she organized the materials with her hands, she started her questions.

“Firstly, there’s the issue of the road network and power supply.”

“Sure.”

“Is there any way to obtain materials like these? I want to know specifically how much support there is in power, water, medical supplies, and food heading towards the north.”

Camila lamented, pointing at a document on the screen.

The document was a report published by an international relief organization stating that medical and food assistance in the northern regions of the Empire was severely inadequate, power and water supply were unstable, clean drinking water was scarce, and international support was urgently needed.

However, it lacked specific figures or graphs, containing only vague textual information.

“Since it’s data from an international relief organization, I think the source’s reliability is high, but since there are no concrete figures, it’s impossible to assess the reliability of the intelligence.”

“Hmmm.”

I opened the secure device. Searching for related materials in the database, I found a report titled ‘Current Border Conflict Trends’ distributed by the ‘Consulate General of the Tarkhan Republic in the Kien Empire’ just early this morning.

Got it.

“I found some materials here.”

“Oh.”

The ‘Current Border Conflict Trends’ report contained a few key points, albeit brief.

It mentioned issues like polluted water sources, guidance on refugee movement, insufficient heating facilities, the Tarkhan Republic’s supply of medicines for the allied Kien Empire, preparations for food distribution, improved quality of military supplies, and guidelines for governmental responses.

It was a careful document with simple charts, graphs, and maps included. I transferred the materials to Camila’s device using a cable.

Next.

“What else do you need?”

“Umm. Can you help me out for a moment? There are a few things in the materials I don’t understand.”

“Let’s take a look.”

As Camila typed, briefing videos and articles popped up. Videos of briefings from the spokesperson of the Ministry of Defense and the spokesperson of the Military Government Headquarters started playing.

As I quietly focused on what the spokesperson was saying, Camila opened up an article beside her.

“It says here that teachers in the north, who opposed governmental policies, started small protests and were arrested. And the Military Government HQ spokesperson? The dressed-up spokesperson defined the disturbance as acts against the state and stated they would be punished.”

Camila posed a query.

“Protesting under martial law could indeed be seen as an act against the state if the law sets that standard. The issue, though, is why were the teachers protesting?”

“…Hmmm. That’s indeed puzzling.”

Let’s find out.

I entered the database and looked through a series of measures the Empire implemented both before and after the declaration of martial law.

After sifting through materials ranging from this year to four years ago, I stumbled upon a video of the Ministry of Defense spokesperson.

[Access to the northern region, where martial law has been declared, is restricted, but normal economic activities can proceed as they would in regular times, and entry for essential personnel and transport vehicles will be granted. The Military Government Headquarters will do its utmost for peace and safety…]

Suddenly, something crossed my mind. I turned on the video and began searching for Kien Empire’s legal codes.

About ten minutes later, I found an interesting passage in the Kien Empire’s labor law.

“Employers who delay or fail to pay wages to employees shall be penalized by law. Additionally, workers whose wages have not been paid may go on strike in accordance with their right to assemble and organize as defined by the constitution.

However, in cases of national emergency during wartime, natural disasters, or martial law,

All civil servants associated with government institutions, including defense, national security, law enforcement, and firefighting, are prohibited from halting work.”

At that moment, Camila, quietly observing from beside me, found something new in the Foreign Ministry documents.

“According to this news article, the teachers protested due to delayed wages, didn’t they?”

“By the labor law provisions, civil servants are prohibited from striking under martial law. And according to the Empire’s law, teachers from schools and academies are considered civil servants.”

So, it makes sense that they would protest and subsequently be detained. Although it is quite typical of the Empire to somehow involve themselves in legitimate protests and arrest people.

At this point, an ordinary person might think, ‘Ah, those bastards are at it again…’ but I had a slightly different perspective.

Delayed salaries for civil servants? That indicates something problematic is astir.

Camila, seeming to agree, pointed out while reviewing the Tarkhan Republic’s materials I had sent her earlier.

“It seems the situation in the north is more serious than I thought. If civil servants have their salaries delayed, what about the workers in the private sector?”

“We wouldn’t know.”

The Empire’s media wouldn’t report such events, and the war correspondents dispatched from friendly nations wouldn’t report on that either.

Even if a righteous journalist puts in the effort to investigate, they would get cut off by the desk. And that journalist would soon have their press pass revoked and be arrested by military police.

I reviewed the press releases from the Military Government HQ to check if there was any mention of foreigners.

“Don’t worry too much. Soon enough, when we go to the north, you’ll see what’s happening there firsthand.”

“Is that what we’re doing? Going to help those people?”

That wouldn’t happen.

Even if the Abas government supported Camila and Lucia’s ‘humanitarian relief activities’, the Kien Empire’s government wouldn’t allow it. Dictatorial countries typically try to show only what they want to show.

But it felt a bit wrong to say it outright, so I could only brush off my response.

“Now, next. Do you have more questions?”

“I want to know about the movements of the Kien troops.”

“Go ahead.”

Photos and articles appeared on the screen. Camila pointed to one photo.

“You can see that in the photo from months ago, an armored division made up of tanks and armored vehicles is moving north.”

That photo looked familiar.

The division depicted in the photograph was the same armored unit that had appeared near the Magic Tower months ago. As I scanned the symbols I recognized, Camila moved to another photo.

“This time, it shows infantry instead of tanks and armored vehicles.”

“However, only a few weeks ago, there was news that a special force called ‘35th Independent Special Operations Regiment’ was deployed to the north.”

Ah, the 35th Independent Special Operations Regiment.

The Empire’s military has many special units. Still, not all those many units qualify as special warfare units.

Just as a division’s airborne troops or reconnaissance teams aren’t considered equivalent to elite troops like special forces or UDT, there are plenty of units in the Empire merely labeled as special forces without true qualifications.

As an additional note, all special units in the Empire are under the jurisdiction of the Reconnaissance Command.

One could compare it to how the Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) and North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau command special operations units.

“……”

The military intelligence-managed special operations unit has been dispatched to the north. I had a pretty good idea of what was going on.

“Probably for a counter-espionage operation.”

“A counter-espionage operation?”

“The demon tribes are sending armed operatives to strike at northern infrastructure. It’s likely that the unstable power and magical supply and the issues with medical supplies and food arise from that. They’re probably demolishing roads and blowing up dams to wreak havoc.”

“Oh, so this special unit was dispatched for that?”

“I can’t be sure, but it seems likely. If it’s the 35th Special Regiment, it’s one of the units responsible for initial counter-terrorism efforts. They could be swapping out with other regiments stationed further up or could be an additional force.”

That’s about all I could say on that subject.

If they were rotating in, I’d question which unit was heading back and which special regiment was already in the north, but there was no need to share such information with Camila. She didn’t need to know that.

I let out a slight sigh as I glanced at the time. It was already dinner time.

“It’s dinner time. Let’s pause for a moment and eat first.”

“…Wait.”

Camila placed her hand on my shoulder. I was about to get up to prepare dinner, but I sat back down.

“What’s up?”

“Just a moment, please.”

Camila started typing again, her face expressing something serious I couldn’t discern. A plethora of articles and materials sprung up, flickering on the screen.

Like someone enchanted, she combed through the documents, and I simply watched, bemused.

After about three minutes passed,

Camila finally found something, tapping my shoulder before pointing at the screen with her hand.

“Look at this.”

“What is it?”

It was an article that had been published just the other day.

In a small two-part article, the phrase ‘Imperial special operations units are stationed in the capital’ caught my eye.

Camila questioned me.

“Typically, how does the military unit moving from the southernmost region to the northern region travel?”

“By train. They have transport plans in place for infantry units during wartime and under martial law.”

“So, how long does it take for the units to travel from the southernmost to the northernmost?”

“If things are quick, three days; if slow, up to five days.”

Just as a point of reference, it takes trains on the Siberian route a total of seven days to reach the endpoints.

Camila remarked.

“The special operations unit that was supposed to head north in response to the sabotage actions of the northern enemy is still stationed in the capital. Doesn’t that seem strange?”

“……”

“Of course, it’s possible there could be another purpose for them not heading north, but… common sense would suggest you wouldn’t deploy special units to the front line.”

“Exactly.”

“So it means they must have left the south for some other purpose….”

Why on earth are these people staying in the capital instead of heading north?

“……”

“……”

We exchanged blank stares.

Something unsettling was afoot.